Japanese ditch PCs for smart phones, big-screens TVs
In Japan the use of the general purpose PC at home may be in steady decline. Will the U.S. follow? Japanese college students are opting for the latest gaming, entertainment and mobile phone technologies in lieu of buying a new laptop or desktop computer, according to a recent Associated Press story.
One reason may be that other technologies are taking away functions that used to run exclusively on a PC, such as instant messaging/text messaging and e-mail. Another reason is the general feeling that there's no reason to upgrade older machines. Meanwhile, students are finding more compelling technologies on which to spend their money. In Japan, desktop shipments dropped 4.8% and laptops dropped 3.1% last year. Sony, NEC and Apple have all seen declines since 2006 and Hitachi has thrown in the towel and exited the market, according to the story.
Will that trend spread to the U.S.? It may have already started.
I did some checking with IDC, which recently updated its Worldwide PC forcast for 2007–2011. Overall, it expects PC shipments to grow at a compound annual rate of about 9% through 2011. But most of that growth is coming from the developing world. Annual growth rates for PC shipments in Japan are expected to rise just 1.8% annually over the same period, and for he U.S. the number is 4.8%. In contrast, growth rates for the developing world are closer to 14%.
Do consumers really need PCs anymore? Many people use them for just one or two things at home, such as e-mail or gaming. For those functions, other devices are less bulky and easier to use.
Early on, PCs killed off typewriters. As alternative technologies continue to peel away applications once dominated by the PC, the personal computer may lose its position as the hub of the home technology universe -if it ever had it. Is it possible that the PC could go back to its roots in the home, to be viewed as nothing more than a glorified word processing machine?