There’s a general expectation that ethanol producers will benefit from a fivefold increase in ethanol usage in the U.S. by 2022 mandated under the energy bill that President Bush signed into law in December, 2007. But concerns that supply will outstrip demand for the clean fuel additive in the more immediate future have recently weighed on the shares of companies such as VeraSun Energy (VSE).
A spike in corn prices, which inflates the cost of ethanol production, has also hurt ethanol stocks.
Brookings, S.D.-based VeraSun got some relief on Wednesday, Mar. 12, however, after beating a grim fourth-quarter forecast by Wall Street analysts and projecting a nearly 27% increase in shipping volumes for the first quarter of 2008. The shares, which had been down 56% since the beginning of the year, closed 4.3% higher at $6.97 on Mar. 12.
Eitan Bernstein, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, sees VeraSun poised to emerge as the industry leader after the completion of its proposed merger with U.S. BioEnergy by virtue of production volume alone, which is expected to grow to 1.64 billion gallon by the end of 2008.
“VeraSun is the best positioned company and seems to be doing everything right,” he said. But he has a market perform rating on the stock since he remains cautious about the new supply of ethanol that’s scheduled to come on the market this year. (FBR makes a market in VeraSun shares.)
The company reported a profit of four cents per share, 85% below the 27 cents per share it earned in the fourth quarter of 2006 as higher corn costs and lower ethanol prices offset a sharp rise in revenue. Total revenue – which includes revenue from the sale of ethanol, distillers grains used in animal feed and VE85, a retail blend of 85% gasoline and 15% ethanol – more than doubled to $312.4 million from $146.5 million a year earlier.
Wall Street analysts had estimated a net loss of three cents per share for the quarter.
A 76.3 million gallon increase in the volume of ethanol shipped during the fourth quarter from a year earlier was partly offset by a 30-cent drop in the average ethanol price to $1.87 per gallon.
Net sales of co-products such as distilled grains more than tripled to $54.6 million in the fourth quarter from the year-ago period, with 72% of the increase due to higher volumes from additional capacity at the three new plants and the rest due to higher prices.
Earnings for all of 2007 fell 70% to 31 cents from $1.03 per share in 2006 on a 52% surge in revenue to $848.3 million. The revenue growth was driven by an increase in ethanol volume sold of 128.6 million gallons. Total production volume increased by 82.5 million gallons, or 138%, thanks to additional capacity as three new plants – in Iowa, Indiana and Nebraska – came on line.
The ethanol industry in general is faring slightly better so far this year than in the last three months of 2007 due to higher ethanol prices, which have been buoyed partly by higher oil prices, says Jinming Liu, an analyst at Ardour Capital in New York.
During a conference call on Mar. 12 to discuss the latest results, VeraSun said it was confident that ethanol prices would continue to closely track moves in corn prices.
But Liu said he has doubts about that. Year to date, for example, ethanol prices have climbed 23 to 43 cents per gallon from the average fourth-quarter price, while corn is up $1.10 to $1.20 per bushel so far this year.
Whether or not corn prices continue to climb at the same pace for the rest of this year will depend largely on the crop acreage projections that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release later this month.
Analysts are anticipating that the USDA report will peg corn crops at 90 million acres in 2008, vs. 93.5 million acres in 2007, says Bernstein at FBR. Anything below 90 million acres is likely to be bullish for corn prices, while anything above it would be bearish, he said.