With just a few days left in the second quarter, Wall Street is preparing for yet another disappointing round of corporate earnings reports.
According to Thomson Reuters (TRI), analysts expect the earnings of the S&P 500 to fall 10.2% this quarter, a number that keeps getting worse as pessimism deepens about the financial sector. It would be the fourth straight quarter of falling earnings, the first such losing streak since 2001-02.
Recent bad news from big banks—such as KeyCorp (KEY), which warned it is seeing credit quality deteriorate, and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), which was forced to slash its dividend and raise $2 billion in capital—only deepened the gloom that has hung over financial stocks since the start of the credit crisis almost a year ago. And some brand-name nonfinancial companies, such as FedEx (FDX), have also joined the chorus of woe.
Another unsatisfying earnings season would fit the mood on Wall Street, as investors fret over credit market turmoil, higher inflation, and the weak housing market. Suspicions are that the U.S. is facing, or already in, a nasty recession.
Bright Spots
A close look at earnings expectations, however, shows that, despite all the focus on gloom and doom, there are bright spots.
Outside of financials, for example, companies are doing much better than one might expect during an economic slowdown.
Oracle (ORCL) on June 25 reported earnings of 47¢ a share, beating expectations for the software giant's fourth quarter by 2¢. Revenue hit $7.24 billion, up from $5.83 billion a year ago.
"You're seeing good growth out of many sectors," says David Dropsey, an analyst at Thomson Reuters. Excluding the financial sector, S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 8.2%.
"You have to divide the world into financials and nonfinancials," says Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at WJB Capital Group.
Even Worse Than Expected
True, within the financial sector, damage from the credit crisis is worse than almost anyone expected. Analysts estimate earnings for the S&P 500 financial sector will drop by more than half from the year before, according to Thomson Reuters. But the last few quarters have shown how difficult it is to predict financial earnings, Dropsey says. Quarter after quarter in the past year, analysts have underestimated the impact of credit difficulties on the bottom lines of banks and other financial firms.