The Standard & Poor's 1500 Hotels, Resort & Cruise Lines subindustry index recently saw its relative strength ranking weaken and fall into the bottom 30% of all subindustries in the S&P Composite 1500 index (consisting of the S&P 500, MidCap 400, and SmallCap 600 indexes). The relative strength ranking is based on the trailing 52-week price performance for all sectors and subindustries in the S&P 1500.
Year-to-date through Aug. 22, this subindustry index was down 16.9%, vs. an 11.1% decline for the S&P 1500. During 2007, this subindustry slumped 14.1%, vs. a 3.6% advance for the S&P 1500.
Take a look at the accompanying chart. The jagged blue line represents the subindustry index's rolling 52-week price performance, compared with the 52-week performance of the S&P 1500. Any point above 100 indicates the market outperformed the prior year while points below 100 indicate it underperformed. The red line is a rolling 39-week moving average, while the two green bands indicate one standard deviation above and below the index's long-term mean relative strength.
Sell Recommendations
S&P equity analysts cover 11 large-, mid-, and small-cap companies in the Hotel, Resort & Cruise Lines subindustry, four of which are components of the index. Seven of those 11 stocks carry 2 STARS, or sell, recommendations: Carnival Corp. (CCL), Carnival PLC (CUK), Gaylord Entertainment (GET), Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG), Interstate Hotels & Resorts (IHR), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL). One company has a 1 STAR, or strong sell, recommendation: Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT).
"We have an overall negative fundamental outlook for the hotels, resorts, and cruise lines subindustry," notes S&P equity analyst Mark Basham. S&P has a mixed outlook for foreign intra-regional travel, with Europe likely to weaken, while the Middle East and Asia continue to grow. Basham says S&P anticipates further deterioration in demand among domestic business and leisure travelers, as well as less outbound international travel from the U.S., factors likely to outweigh the positive news in Asia.