It wasn't hard to find skeptics on Wall Street on Sept. 8, the day after the federal government's weekend takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
Yes, some investors were reassured by the bold, risky move. They hope it hastens the end of the yearlong financial crisis. The stock market, and financial stocks particularly, moved higher on Sept. 8 (with the notable exceptions of Fannie and Freddie, each of which plunged to below $1).
Yet with a range of problems hanging over America's economy and housing and mortgage markets, most fund managers and market experts interviewed by BusinessWeek said they weren't ready as investors to embrace the embattled financial sector.
Spooked by Bear
Some analysts reacted to the Fannie and Freddie news by upgrading their view on financial firms like Goldman Sachs (GS) and some regional banks.
But by contrast, many other investors cited the Bear Stearns collapse in March, when the Federal Reserve tried to ease the credit crunch by providing liquidity to investment banks. The federal government's actions initially met with Wall Street approval. But the stock market rally was short-lived, and by summer stocks were again tumbling lower.
The best that could be said of the Fannie-Freddie action is that it answers a big question: No, the federal government will not allow these crucial mortgage financiers to fail and potentially cripple the mortgage and housing market in the U.S.
"They've taken a big question mark out of the mortgage market," says Dave Hinnenkamp, chief executive of KDV Wealth Management. "It will stop things from getting worse" for the housing and mortgage industries, says Jeff Layman, chief investment officer at BKD Wealth Advisors.
Lower Mortgage Rates?
And the takeover may even make things better for ordinary Americans, if the government's new guarantees can finally lower mortgage rates. That would make it easier for homeowners to refinance mortgages and allow more new home buyers to enter the housing market.
What worries investors, however, is that banks may still be reluctant to lend. The federal government can't erase the lessons of the past year. As bankers have been the victims of bad loans, they've drastically raised lending standards, making it harder for Americans to qualify for a mortgage.
"The Treasury cannot force banks to lend money," says Matt Kaufler, portfolio manager of the Touchstone Value Opportunities Fund (CCEVX). "The skeptical mindset of bankers will be with us for a while."
Eating Away at Collateral
Investors worried about the financial crisis are increasingly focused on U.S. housing prices. If home prices can stop sliding and foreclosures slow, financial firms can stop reporting huge losses on widely held mortgage-backed debt.
The home price slide is a big worry for bankers because it eats away at the collateral on each home loan. It is hardly clear that the Freddie and Fannie plan, by lowering mortgage rates, can stop the home price slide. "The psychology in the housing markets is not shifting because Fannie and Freddie are getting a bailout," says Michael Church of Church Capital Management. A huge surplus of unsold homes still sits on the market, especially in hard-hit states like Florida and California.
The Fannie and Freddie takeover may even hurt some small, regional banks that held preferred shares in the two mortgage firms. The value of that equity is now in serious doubt.