S&P Picks and Pans: Goldman Sachs, Capital One, AIG, Evergreen Solar, CSX
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24/Sep/2008 9:39AM

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF GOLDMAN SACHS (GS; 125.05):

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA; 12,8800.00) will buy $5 billion in GS callable perpetual preferred shares and will receive warrants to buy $5 billion in common shares for $115 each over a 5-year term. The preferred shares will have a 10% coupon. GS also plans to raise $2.5 billion in a separate public common stock offering. While these moves signal a rise in the cost of capital, we see them providing a much needed sign of confidence in GS, and the capital raised should immediately help with the company's planned deleveraging. We expect GS shares to open higher, but we would not add to positions. -M. Albrecht

S&P LOWERS OPINION ON SHARES OF CAPITAL ONE TO SELL FROM HOLD, ON VALUATION (COF; 51.42):

COF affirms its 2008 financial expectations. Its assumptions include low- to mid-single digit revenue growth, and an efficiency ratio in the mid-40s percent range, or lower. Notably, it expects the chargeoff rate in its U.S. card business to rise to around 7% by the fourth quarter, from the second quarter's 6.26% level, in line with our projections. COF will also build reserves by roughly $200 million and plans to sell 14 million shares to raise capital. We are lowering our 2008 EPS estimate by $0.30 to $4.90 but raising our target price $2 to $47, a below historical 9.6 times our 2008 EPS forecast. -S. Plesser

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP (AIG; 5.00):

AIG announces it has completed its previously announced bailout deal with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York under which AIG will receive an $85 billion emergency loan (with an interest rate of LIBOR plus 8.5%, or about 11.5%) secured by the assets of the company. The deal also gives the NY Fed a 79.9% stake in AIG. We are maintaining our 12-month target price $5.50, which assumes the shares trade at about one times our estimate of tangible equity after giving effect to this transaction. We would not add to positions. -C. Seifert

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF EVERGREEN SOLAR (ESLR; 6.24):

Shares of ESLR and its peers are up sharply today, after Senate approves eight-year extension of solar energy tax breaks. House and Presidential approvals are still needed, but these are expected. Much of ESLR's planned production for the next few years is already contracted, but we think tax credit news should raise ESLR's valuation. We are hiking our target price by $2 to $6.50, or some 14 times our 2009 EPS estimate. But given tight financing markets, we would not add to positions. -M. Jaffe

S&P REITERATES BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF CSX CORP (CSX; 56.57):

CSX sees third quarter EPS reduced by $0.06-$0.08 by Hurricane Ike and other storms that occurred subsequent to its having boosted guidance for 2008, rather aggressively in our view, on Sept. 11. Costs associated with traffic reroutes, impaired assets, and some production outages do not change our fundamental outlook for CSX, since we believe efforts to improve pricing and efficiency system wide are well underway. We leave our EPS projections for 2008 and 2009 unchanged at $3.72 and $4.19, respectively. Likewise, our 12-month target price remains $69, based on our DCF and relative valuations. -K. Kirkeby-CFA




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