Yesterday the U.S. equity markets opened sharply lower. Some said it was due to the disappointment with the Treasury bailout package that was expected to be passed. By late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average was off more than 200 points. When the resolution was voted down in the House of Representatives, however, the market sank nearly 800 points by the end of the day. It seemed as if stocks were damned if they did and damned if they didn't.
I believe the decline early in the day was the reaction to Fortis (FOR.BR) becoming the largest European financial institution to receive a government rescue. The late-day sell-off, in my view, was compounded by the failure of the U.S. financial-market rescue plan to be approved by Congress. As a result, investors felt as if they had been flying in the fog only to find it had gotten even foggier.
Should we be surprised by the market's performance this month? Maybe not, since September merely lived up to its reputation as the worst month for the stock market since 1929, 1945, 1970, and 1990. The S&P 500 has posted an average decline in September whether you look back 20, 40, or 80 years. Through Sept. 29, the S&P 500 sank 13.8%, the worst single-month decline since the Long Term Capital Management-induced panic that drove the Index down 15% in August 1998. Need we brace for more down days? Possibly.
"Say Something Encouraging"
On Monday many people called to ask, "Is there anything positive I can take away from all of this?" Yes, I tell them that it could have been a lot worse. Some said, "It's 1987 all over again!" I reminded them that on Oct. 19, 1987, the 508-point one-day decline on the Dow represented 22.6% of its value. Today, a percent decline of this magnitude would have forced the Dow lower by 2518 points, or more than three times what we experienced. Also, today's 8.8% (106-point) decline in the S&P 500 was the second-largest decline since 1950, but well below the 248.67 points that would have been required to equal the crash on Black Monday.
Another comforting fact is that five of the last nine bear markets in the past 50 years ended in October. We enter this traditional "bottoming month" on Wednesday. Maybe we are setting ourselves up for an end-of-bear capitulation. Since 1990, the S&P 500 has actually recorded its best monthly performance in October, as it rose an average 2.1% vs. the 0.61% average gain during all 12 months of the year. The second- and third-best performing months since 1990 were November and December, gaining 1.85% and 1.84%, respectively. Maybe we'll have something to look forward to.
And what do we make of the volatility? Mark Arbeter, S&P's chief technical strategist, believes we have already hit extreme levels of investor bearishness, as seen in recent VIX (market volatility index), put-call ratios, and investor sentiment readings. These are typically contrary indicators and have traditionally pointed to better times ahead. My own two-month moving average of daily S&P 500 high-low percent difference has also risen. While we have not reached the level that would make me more confident of a bear market low, it is getting mighty close.